Stigilitz on China's New Model of Economic Growth

Joseph E. Stiglitz, Professor at Columbia
Nobel Laureate in Economics 2001
Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President of the World Bank 1997-2000
Chairman of Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration 1995-1997
今天负责组织的中国同学会不知道是低估了这串头衔的威力,还是象演出公司一样低估了"中国需求",商学院一个100多座位的教室水泄不通,还有大约40人站着,后来的根本进不去.其实没讲什么新东西,哥大几个拿诺贝尔经济奖的教授中好像就他最年轻最活跃,经常演讲.

Old Model and New Realities:
- The export-oriented model is not proper any more
- Even higher growth doesn't ensure jobs, because productivity growth surpasses demand growth.
- Current trajectory not environmentally sustainable. Market prices of resources, like water, fail to reflect the scarcity.
- Growth rate of exports not sustainable because of saturation of market and political blacklash
- Enough reserves to protect against fluctucation
Key Elements of New Model:
- Increasing concerns about inequality, including rural urban divide, and about environment
- Innovation (IP system).
1) Western Innovation, which puts too much attention on reducing demand for labor while too little attention on reducing demand on environment/resources, may not be consistent with China's social goals.
2) Unbalanced IP regime and monopolies retard innovation
- Away from export orientation towards Domestic Consumption & Investment
Government Policy:
- There are many versions of Market Economy but no one fits all.
- There are up and down of economy (including stock market) under any governments
- China is so different that can't simply borrow a model.
- Detail matters, like the property right, social welfare (retirement, healthcare, etc).
- Tax. China's tax policy is designed to encourage saving, right against what China want currently.
- Appreciation of Yuan can't resolve US's problem, not so good for China either.
- Livable Cities require government planning (zoning). The only city in the US doesn't do so is Houston - a horrible example.